In December of 2006, when I had read Obama’s latest book and decided to start blogging, I made a few predictions about the 08 elections:
“I think we’re going to see both the first non-white, and the first female presidential candidates in America. I believe the Democratic bill will offer Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. […] he knows how to connect with the convictions and passions of the general public, and for that I think he’ll become very popular very quickly […] Dispite his denial right now, he will definitely end up running for office, not on the basis of policy, but on popularity and ambition. […] I think Romney is the only one who can rival Obama, and therefore my official prediction is that the 2008 presidential race will be between BARACK OBAMA and MITT ROMNEY, but many factors can change that.”
Well those factors did change and we ended up with McCain. But poll numbers from a Rasmussen survey just came out saying that if the election were held today Romney would actually beat Obama, but barely. Of course, this is just one survey, and it’s largely based on the fact that the economy is in the tank and people view Romney as the money guy who fixed the bankrupt Olympics. So if the economy does better Romney may look better as a VP – though I doubt it will get better under the current regime.
Here’s what Rasmussen says:
Just 21% of voters nationwide say Palin should run as an independent if she loses the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. Sixty-three percent (63%) say the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee should not run as an independent. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.
If Romney secured the GOP nomination and Palin chose to run as an independent candidate, Obama would win the resulting three-way race with 44% of the vote. Romney is the choice of 33% of the voters under that scenario, with Palin a distant third with 16% support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided…
When Romney is the Republican nominee, he beats Obama among unaffiliated voters 48% to 41%. But when Palin is the GOP candidate, unaffiliated voters prefer Obama by a 47% to 41% margin…
In a three-way race, Palin hurts Romney by drawing 28% Republican support. Romney captures 52% of the GOP vote in that scenario.
I still think that the Republican nominee for 2012 will be a new face with a strong conservative viewpoint and an ability to articulate it well and put Obama in his place. Maybe that’s just a dream.